The new and inmediate danger

Manuel Cereijo

I. Smallpox

Smallpox is caused by a virus. The virus spread when an uninfected person  comes in direct contact with a sick person and breath in the virus. After  two weeks, the incubation period of the smallpox virus, the infected  person develops high fever, muscles aches, and pains.

After about three days of fever, the person breaks out in a rash all over  the body. At first it looks like red spots, and the spots gradually become  blisters about the size of a pencil eraser. After about five days of rash,  the fluid in the clear blisters turns to pus. The more pus spots that a  person has, the more likely the person will die.

There are two main types of small pox virus: variola major, which kills  about 35% of the people infected, and variola minor, which kills about 15%  of its victims. The disease was completely eradicated from earth by 1977.

There is evidence that certain countries may have harvested smallpox for  use in weapons, threatening to revive a plague for which vaccines are no  longer produced. Ironically, the danger smallpox would pose to a targeted  population stems in part from the success medical science has enjoyed in  battling the virus.

Smallpox is unlike anthrax, very contagious. New intelligence assessment on  countries doing research and development on the smallpox virus yields:  Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Cuba.

A virus's effectiveness as a weapon can be measured by its mortality rate,  which reflects the number of people to contract the disease after  exposure. Smallpox kills between 35% to 55% of unvaccinated persons, but  its morbidity rate ranges from 70 to 90 %. Those who do not die, can be  permanently blinded. Others will bear scars as long as they live.  Smallpox, unlike anthrax, requires no concentration process. It is one of the most  effective  and lethal bioweapons in existence

In the early development of Cuba's biotechnological program, ( 1989), Cuba  purchased from Russia large industrial fermentation vessels. Cuba, later  on, acquired the technology to build its own vessels. These are essential  in the development of the smallpox virus.

Smallpox virus particles can be disseminated with aerosols, much more  effective than anthrax. Fewer than five viral particles of smallpox are  sufficient to infect a person. To infect a person with anthrax, deadly,  some 10,000 spores are required.. Spraying the virus in concentrated  crowded places, such as: trains, airplanes, shopping centers, arenas,  stadiums. Remember: no treatment for smallpox, except the vaccine.

II. DIRTY BOMBS

The damage caused by a dirty bomb depends on the amount of radioactive and  conventional explosive material in the bomb, as well as such factors as  wind, the size of the buildings in the area attacked, and the ballistic at  detonation. People in the immediate vicinity would likely die from the  force of the conventional explosion itself. Some survivors of the blast  might die of radiation poisoning in the weeks afterwards. Those farther  away from the explosion might suffer radiation sickness in the weeks  afterward but recover. Over time, risks of cancer in the affected area  would rise. The attack area could be not usable again, or it may require  months of intense cleanup efforts, somewhat like the fumigation of the  Hart Senate Office Building after the anthrax letters attacks.

Background       

Materials are radioactive if their atomic nuclei, or centers,  spontaneously disintegrate, or decay, with high-energy fragments of this  disintegration flying off into the environment. Several kinds of particles  can so be emitted, and are collectively referred to as radiation. The  radiation produced by radioactive materials provides a low-cost way to  disinfect food , sterilize medical equipment, treat certain kinds of  cancer, find oil, build sensitive smoke detectors, generate electricity,  etc. As a result, significant amounts of radioactive materials are stored  in laboratories, food irradiation plants, oil drilling facilities, nuclear  plants, medical centers, experimental reactors, and many other sites.

Sample cases

We will briefly refer to three cases to illustrate the range of impacts  that could be created by malicious use of comparatively small radioactive  sources: the amount of cesium that was discovered recently abandoned in  North Carolina, the amount of cobalt commonly found in a single rod in a  food irradiation facility, and the amount of americium typically found in  oil well logging systems. In all cases we will assume that the material is  released on a calm day. We assume that the material is distributed by an  explosion that causes a mist of fine particles to spread downwind in a cloud. People will be exposed to radiation in several ways.  First, they will be exposed to material in the dust inhaled during the  initial passage of radiation cloud. We assume that at least 25% of the  material is in particles small enough to be inhaled. The material will  stay in the body and lead to a long term exposure.

Second, anyone living in the affected area will be exposed to material  deposited from the dust that settles from the cloud. They will be  continuosly exposed to radiation from this dust, since the gamma rays  penetrate clothing and skin.

Third, people would also be exposed to radiation from contaminated food and    water sources.

Makings of a dirty bomb       

Hundreds of small radioactive power generators are scattered across the  former Soviet Union, and several other countries. These lethal devices can  be used as possible components in a weapon to be used in a terrorist  asymmetric strike. Radio-thermal generators, RTGs, used by the Soviets to  power navigational beacons and communications equipment in remote areas,  each containing up to 40,000 curies of highly radioactive strontium or  cesium.

Even a tiny fraction of a single curie of strontium has a high  probability of causing a fatal cancer. These two materials, which cannot  be used to make nuclear weapons, can be combined with conventional  explosives to build a dirty bomb or radiological bomb.

There are literally hundred of places, and countries, where terrorists use  and have access to materials for such a bomb, including dumping grounds  for medical waste. In some RTGs, the device's core typically is a flash  light-size capsule of strontium 90, surrounded by thick lead to absorb the  radiation. If broken, it radiates fatal doses of radiation

Conclusion

The events of September 11 have created a need to very carefully assess  our defense needs and ensure that the resources we spend for security are  aligned with the most pressing security threats. The threat of malicious  radiological attacks in the US is quite real, quite serious, and deserves  a vigorous response. There is no immediate way for the public to  distinguish a dirty bomb explosion from a regular explosion.

All nations classified as terrorist nations, have access to these  materials, and certainly most of them, including Cuba, and Iraq, have the technology  and capacity to build dirty bombs. Cuba has had nuclear medicine for  years, two experimental nuclear reactors given by the Soviet Union, and  access to materials such as cobalt, cesium, strontium, iridium, and  americium.

We are facing a new dangerous wave of attacks: smallpox and asymmetrical  nuclear weapons. This is why we should respond relentlessly and thoroughly to  terrorism.

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