ASYMETRICAL MILITARY THREAT FROM CUBA AND SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES

By Manuel Cereijo

US POLICY TOWARDS CUBA

It is important to understand that since the US confrontation in October of
1962 with the Soviet Union, the US policy towards Cuba has been one of
containment of the communist regime. Certainly, whether by design or not,
the result of our policy towards the communist island has not resulted in a
substantive change in the style of government in Cuba in 40 years.

The agreement our government made not to engage in de-stabilizing actions
against the Castro regime, Castro's own dogmatic stubbornness and inability to
change, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the weak application of the
Helms-Burton law have resulted in essentially stabilizing existing
conditions in Cuba for the last four decades.

It seems that this policy of containment was the acceptable policy to prior
administrations. The Castro regime was perceived as a headache but not as a
security threat to our government.

However, this policy of containment may not be sustainable in the near
future. Significant geopolitical and technological changes are taking place.
This short write-up is an attempt to shed some light on the interdependence
of recent events and their impact on our national security. If these
destabilizing changes are not addressed properly, they can take us to a
situation where the communist island can become a significant security
threat to the United States and other democracies in this hemisphere.

Let's remember that it was Castro who tried to convince the former Soviet
Union to utilize nuclear weapons during the October missile crisis against
the United States and is continuing to subvert democratic governments
throughout this hemisphere.

The full range of Cuba's espionage activities are a very serious matter of
concern. Cuban intelligence, in particular the DGI, remains a viable threat
to the United States. The Cuban UN mission in Washington is the third
largest UN delegation. His new developing relationship with China, his activities in
Venezuela and Colombia, the elite training camp in Pinar del Rio province,
his bio-weapons facilities, and his cyber-warfare capabilities are examples
of his dedication to continue conducting and developing an asymmetric
warfare capability in which the United States and the democracies of this hemisphere are the target.

CUBA ELITE FORCES TRAINING CAMP

Since mid 1980's Cuba established in Los Palacios, Pinar del Rio, in a
region known as El Cacho, a Special Forces military training school. This school
has trained elements of foreign countries, including elements from several Arab
States that are fighting and conducting terrorism against democratic
countries throughout the world. Castro recently visited some radical Arab
States and showed support to the global terrorist movement. Dr. Rodrigo
Alvarez Cambra is a medical doctor that has treated Saddam Hussein and is a
Colonel in the Cuban Army. Cuba and Iraq have close relationships regarding
technologies of weapons of mass destruction.

This Special Forces military training school is named Baragua. It is
situated in a valley near Pinar del Rio Mountains. It is a very large training camp
with the most modern facilities provided by Russia first and now by China.
The school is exactly located where the first missiles were discovered
during the 1962 missile crisis.

The school was until recently  under the command of General Jose Luis Mesa,
a very close friend and confidant of Raul Castro. General Mesa is 50 years,
old well mannered and speaks fluent English. He is a veteran of Vietnam and the
African wars where he fought against those forces supported by the United
States. Colonel Ramirez, a black Cuban, veteran of Angola and Vietnam,
assists him. Colonel Ramirez is an expert on special warfare training.
Presently they have the assistance of Chinese and Vietnamese instructors.

The Special Forces training camp has a constant flow of about 2500 men in
training. The most serious threats form these special trained troops are:
Infiltration, subversion, sabotage, reconnaissance, commando attacks,
espionage, and bio-warfare and cyber-warfare operations. This is clearly an
offensive military capability training rather than defensive operations.


CHINA

China is a relative new threat to the U.S. in Cuba. The presence of Chinese
personnel in Cuba is now very obvious. The Electronic Warfare Battalion
located at Bejucal, south of Habana, conducts intelligence operations, that
is eavesdropping, cyber-warfare, telephone espionage and jamming operations
capable of disrupting communications inside the United States. Since March
of 1999, Chinese personnel have taken partially over the operations of the
Bejucal base.

In February 1999, a top-level Chinese military delegation led by Chi
Haotian, Defense Minister of China, visited Cuba. They met several times with Raul
Castro. It was the first time a Chinese minister of defense visited Cuba. As
reported in the Washington Times, China's state run shipping company, China
Ocean Shipping Company, has sent "at least three shipments of weapons"
during 2000 "to the Cuban port of Mariel". 

What are the Chinese doing in Cuba? What is their strategy? Should we be concerned about a significant increase in the Chinese presence in Cuba?

I can foresee future scenarios similar to the October missile crisis
developing because of the Chinese presence in Cuba. This could eventually
impact our Taiwan policy.

China could significantly increase their personnel and commitment to the
Castro regime and, by the time we react, they will put the Cuba /Taiwan
policy trade-off on the table. I believe we should be very concerned about
letting them corner us into this untenable trade-off situation. 

VENEZUELA

A new threat has developed in Venezuela, a country with a friendly history
towards the U.S. Venezuela for many years has been a dependable supplier of
energy to the U.S. and thus of strategic importance. Chavez was elected by a
majority of voters in a democratic election in Venezuela. Upon being
elected, Chavez has followed a voluntary alliance with Cuba. He has bailed out Cuba
from its petroleum shortage and signed an unusual agreement based on an
exchange of oil for medical and political advice.

Chavez has renamed the country "Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela". The
significance of the name change is that Bolivar had visions of a united
South American Country under one Bolivarian Republic. Chavez seems to be publicly
declaring his intentions.

Chavez has pushed through a new constitution that gives him more power and
seems intended in making Venezuela a socialist state. He has met several
times with Castro and acts as a Cuban satellite in the continent. Castro is
offering intelligence and military support to Chavez who is in the process
of creating Castro-type militias and security apparatus.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin recently visited Caracas. It is known that
President Chavez is considering the purchase of conventional weapons to
rearm his country and built a parallel army alongside the regular Armed Forces,
which he does not trust. What is China doing in Venezuela? Will they enter
into a long-range alliance with Chavez similar to the one they have
developed with Cuba? What is the strategic impact to the U.S. of these alliances?
Would China use Cuba and Venezuela as bargaining chips in its relations with the
U.S?
 
In Venezuela the intimidation of newspapers and television reporters has
begun with the goal to eliminate freedom of expression. The indoctrination
of children into communist ideology and the political subversion of the
students of the Central University of Caracas have also begun. Chavez strategy is
following the successful blueprint of Castro's takeover in Cuba.

According to pro-democracy Venezuelans, who are resenting the "involvement
and invasion of Chinese and Cuban communists in their internal affairs",
workers are being replaced "with Chinese and Cuban agents to the detriment
of their national security"

Chavez is rather young and has the financial resources behind him to be a
real threat to the energy supply and stability of the U.S. and the
struggling democracies in Latin America. Chavez has already harbored and supplied
Colombian guerillas.


COLOMBIA

The leftist, Castro inspired Colombian guerrillas known as the FARC, already
control a Switzerland-sized area in the southern region of Colombia. For 37
years the FARC have been waging a deadly war against the constitutional
government of Colombia. They now are gaining new ground with the support of
Cuba and now Venezuela.

Human Rights Watch, a U.S.-based monitoring group, recently issued a 20 page
letter containing a detailed critique of rebel abuses including kidnappings,
child recruiting, harsh treatment of war prisoners, assassinations, the use
of indiscriminate missiles against the population, and drug trafficking.
Colombia is now the most dangerous place to practice journalism. The
Paris-based World Association of Newspapers said that there has been eight
journalists killed in Colombia this year in what appears to be retributive
attacks.

The FARC has publicly vowed to prevent even "a drop of petroleum" from being
pumped out of the Occidental Petroleum Cano Limon oil field in eastern
Arauca state with renewed sabotage of their pipelines. Government-run Ecopetrol
operates the Cano Limon Pipeline, which takes oil from the Occidental-run
oil fields to ports in the Caribbean coast. The pipeline has been bombed 109
times this year essentially shutting down oil production. The rebels are
effectively reducing the supply of oil and protecting the production and
distribution of drugs.

The U.S. is already involved in this war. The U.S. Congress approved a $1.3
billion Colombian aid package last year to provide training for three
Colombian Army counter-narcotics battalions including 33 UH1H helicopters
and specialized weapons systems. The problem is that neither the FARC nor the
Colombian military is seen as strong enough to defeat the other. FARC is
well funded, financing its operations by protecting and trafficking in drugs and
with the renewed support of Chavez and Castro.

While the U.S. gets involved in far away conflicts, it is overlooking a
potential explosive situation and a threat to its national security right in
our own backyard. If we remain passive we will repeat the mistakes of the
past and Venezuela could become another Cuba and Colombia another Vietnam.
  
BIO-WEAPONS  

Cuba has one of the most sophisticated biotech capabilities in the Western
Hemisphere. Newt Gingrich wrote in March of 1998: "I am very concerned about
recent reports indicating that Castro's secretive network of sophisticated
biological and genetic research laboratories are being used by the military
and Interior Ministry to develop biological weapons".

Bio-weapons can be used as strategic weapons of mass destruction. They are
incredible powerful and dangerous. Their delivery systems are simple and
hard to detect. That is why our policy towards Iraq has been one of containment
and insisting on onsite verifications. A 1998 CIA publication notes that
biological weapons have an advantage over nuclear weapons in that there are
no reliable detection devices currently available nor are there recognizable
signals of the human senses.

Cuba has the Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology located west
of Habana in Cubanacan. This is the most important institution in Cuba's
biotechnology industry. The Center has state-of-the-art equipment with the
capacity for research and manufacturing bio-weapons.
More than 700 skilled researchers and engineers work at this facility
covering 43,000 square meters of laboratories.

Another state of the art facility is The National Bio-preparations Center,
Biocen.  Biocen is located in Bejucal, south of Habana province, at
Carretera de Beltram.  It is engaged in industrial production of human vaccines. Its
culture media has a capacity of 40 tons. It has all the equipment and
processes required for bacteria and virus weaponization. Biocen can be
considered the brains of the weapons program. It provides scientific and
engineering expertise for the projects commissioned by the military. 

Another facility is the Carlos J. Finlay Institute, best known for the
development of the world's first effective vaccine against both meningitis B
and C. It is located in La Lisa, Habana. Over 950 persons work at the
institute with an area of 23,00 square meters of research and processing
equipment. Plant III area is well prepared for the production of bio-weapons.

Cuba has also the Institute of Tropical Medicine and the Center for
Molecular Immunology. Both facilities have all the pertinent equipment to produce
bio-weapons.

The interesting policy question is: Why do we worry so much about Iraq and
disregard a significant security threat to the U.S. from a terrorist state
90 miles from our coast?

Even the most primitive biological weapons laboratory can produce enough of
an agent to kill thousands in a city. Certainly, Cuba's advanced potential
for biological warfare is a clear security threat to the United States.

ELECTRONIC WARFARE

As we rely more and more in computers, we become more vulnerable to
cyber-terrorism. Imagine what could be the consequences of a virus attack in
Wall Street that would cause their networks to crash. Or a disruption of our
military command and control centers. Ninety percent of our military
communications now passes over public networks. If an electromagnetic pulse
takes out the telephone systems, it will shut down most of our military
communications.

At Lourdes, a suburb of Habana, there is a Russian sophisticated electronic
espionage base that employs 1,500 Russian engineers, technicians and staff.
Russian spent over $3 billion dollars on Lourdes. The base is utilized in
monitoring general U.S. communications and targeted telephones and
electronic devices. The intelligence collection at Lourdes is not limited to
penetrating secret U.S. military operations. Targets also include the interception of
sensitive diplomatic, commercial and economic traffic, and private U.S.
communications.

The Lourdes base also receives and collects intercepts by spy satellites,
ships and planes in the Atlantic region, making it a full fledge command and
control center with the means to conduct cyber-warfare against the United
States.

The Bejucal base mentioned previously has the necessary equipment to
interfere with Radio and TV Marti. This base offers offensive jamming
equipment capable of disrupting communications deep inside the U.S.

In 1998 and 1999 the Pentagon military computer systems were subject to
organized cyber attacks.  Officials stated that these attacks at defense
networks were a coordinated effort coming from abroad. There have also been
coordinated probes and attacks against U.S. military research and technology
systems including the nuclear weapons laboratories run by the Department of
Energy. These attacks coincide with the Bejucal facility becoming fully
operational and also with the presence of China military and intelligence
personnel in Cuba.

China has become very active in Cuba's military telecommunications,
cyber-warfare, and bio-warfare activities. China is investing to modernize
the satellite tracking station at Jaruco and in modernizing the
telecommunications base at Paseo, between 11th and 13th street in the Vedado
section of Habana.

A cyber-terrorist could attack anywhere with the access of the Internet and
destroy, alterate, and infiltrate valuable information or systems necessary
for the security of our nation. A country such as Cuba could harbor
cyber-terrorists or, having the capability, conduct electronic warfare
against the U.S. Certainly the facilities and technology exists in Cuba to
conduct electronic warfare with the very sophisticated Russian and Chinese
state-of the-art equipment, technology and highly qualified personnel.

CUBA POLICY REVIEW

On May 18th, 2001 President George W. Bush in his remarks honoring Cuban
Independence Day reminded the nation that "it is important for us to
remember that our goal is not to have an embargo against Cuba, it is the freedom in
Cuba".

Indeed, a change is needed in our policy towards Cuba. We need to develop a
policy that actively seeks a change in government and eliminates the
numerous security threats to our nation coming from this island just 90 miles from
our shores. The risks of continuing with the past containment policy towards
Cuba are far too great. We need a policy review that actively seeks a real
solution to the national security threats that Cuba represents.

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